Illinois Governor Primary

The Illinois primary election is coming up on February 2nd and there are a number of competitive races (including for Governor and U.S. Senate in both major parties). One note of interest from yesterday was the Chicago Sun Times endorsing State Sen. Kirk Dillard in the GOP primary race for Governor. In the Democratic field there are two key candidates that both currently hold statewide elected office: sitting Governor Pat Quinn and Comptroller Dan Hynes.

Robin Carnahan and ballot language

Political parties are not my normal sources of information as they tend to be a bit one sided, but this is an issue that has been bothering me for a couple of years. I have seen some of the ballot summaries that have come out of the Missouri Secretary of State's office and a few have been badly biased. Whether one agrees with those issues or not, to make the process fair the summaries must be fair. Injecting politics into what should largely be a non-political office and a non-political step in the initiative process is a major problem.

"Troubling and Unfair: Robin Carnahan's Biased Ballot Language"

The future of the Korean Peninsula

The end of World War II shaped the path for the Korean Peninsula and remains near the top of the U.S. foreign policy agenda, with the Republic of Korea (ROC) as a close ally and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) as a consistent pain in the butt. The assumption is that sooner or later the North will fall and we will see reunification as we have seen in nation-states such as Germany and Vietnam.

The Atlantic Council has a good piece, The Cost of Korean Reunification, that I want to recommend. There will be significant challenges to reunification, the largest likely being the economic costs involved in combing a highly successful economy with one that has major starvation issues.

Purity vs. Pragmatism

ABC News has a piece on a proposal for the Republican National Committee (RNC) 2010 meeting that is intriguing (but a bad idea). The debate is whether or not the RNC should be funding moderate candidates. The proposal is that any candidate that wants RNC funding must agree with a set of policy positions to be eligible (thus proving that he or she is sufficiently conservative).

After the 2006 and 2008 electoral losses the Republicans suffered the debate raged between those that thought the party had drifted too far to the right and those that thought that it was not conservative enough. The proposal for RNC funding is another manifestation of that divide. Should the party focus on the core of the conservative element of the party, or should it rather expand the coalition of the party by recruiting and assisting more moderate candidates as well?

Political parties are at the core coalitions that are formed to win elections. The Democrats were successful in 2006 and 2008 in part due to their excellent recruitment of more moderate candidates that prevailed in Republican leaning districts. I happen to agree with one of the people quoted in the article:

“I appreciate where people are coming from and the desire to make sure we are a cohesive group,” RNC member and Bush 41 adviser Ron Kaufman told ABC News when asked about his reaction to the proposal.

“However, we’ve also been the party of states’ rights. That is a binding principle. I’ve always believed that people in Massachusetts shouldn’t tell people in Indiana or Mississippi on who the candidates should be. There is nothing more fundamental than that in the party,” Kaufman added.

Political parties in the United States are broad coalitions with great regional variation. The national political parties will be more successful if they are pragmatic and support the candidates they think will be able to win them seats, not only those who are ideologically pure enough.

Icet and Schweich Battle for GOP Backing

State representative Allen Icet (R-Wildwood) and Thomas Schweich have both declared their candidacy for Missouri state auditor and will face off in the Republican primary election in August of 2010. Presumably the winner of this primary will go on to face incumbent Democrat Susan Montee. The auditor is one of only two statewide offices up for election in Missouri in 2010 (the other being a U.S. Senate seat) and Icet and Schweich are both credible candidates for the race.

2008 saw a bitter Republican primary in the race for Governor between U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. In that race it was the establishment candidate vs. the outsider, with Rep. Hulshof having the backing of most of the state's GOP leadership. The auditor race will not be a repeat of that, as the two candidates have both been successful so far in lining up establishment support for the nomination. To date, Icet has the endorsement of 80 state representatives and 4 state senators. Today Schweich announced that he was endorsed by Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, the only Republican holding statewide office in Missouri at this time.

Both Icet and Schweich have resumes that give them credibility in their quest for the job of auditor. This is the first race that former ambassador and professor Schweich has run, while Icet is serving his 4th term in the Missouri House and was the budget chairman. Schweich has just entered the race, so he did not have to file an Missouri Ethics Committee report for last quarter, but it appears that he will have the funding to mount a well funded campaign. Since campaign donation limits were repealed in Missouri, the influence of a handful of donors could be a major wild card in this race.

The timing of Icet has been interesting so far. Just after Schweich announced that he would not be seeking the U.S. Senate seat up for election and word leaked that he was thinking about the auditor's race Icet jumped in. This gave Icet the ability to echo the call for Republican unity from a major GOP fundraiser and rode the news cycle on the auditor. Then on the day that Schweich announces he is running Icet announces that he has the endorsement of 80 state Representatives and 4 state Senators.

I fully agree with Steve Walsh: "No matter what ... this has the makings of a very interesting race."

Illinois Senate Race Clarified This Week

The 2010 U.S. Senate race in Illinois had a number of important developments this past week. Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) announced that she would not run for the U.S. Senate, nor for Governor, but would run for reelection. Also on the Democratic side, Sen. Roland Burris, who currently holds the seat after being appointed by former IL Gov. Rod Blagojevich, announced that he will not run for the seat in 2010. Both of these are good news for IL Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) who has been raising money for a run at the seat. Word is that Rep. Mark Kirk (R) will run for the seat (see CQ Politics). Rep. Kirk represents a Democratic leaning district in the Chicago area. He is viewed as a strong candidate for the seat, as he is a moderate in a Democratic leaning state. He will be viewed by some in the Republican party as the best chance at picking up the seat, while being attacked by other elements of the party for his moderate stances on a number of issues. There are other Democrats and Republicans eyeing the race as well.

Not a secret strategy, but perhaps not a bad idea

I ran across a blog post that got me thinking. "The Secret Republican Strategy for 2012?" highlights four possible GOP presidential candidates (Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlenty, Sarah Palin, and Chuck Hagel) who are all out of office (or will be by 2012 in the case of Gov. Pawlenty). Mitt Romney could also be added to that list.

With my wet finger in the wind, I predict that the next Republican presidential candidate will be someone not then currently serving in a government position.

The secret strategy of the Republican Party is to proffer experienced candidates with no recent political history to be used against them. Hope and change will wear a new red suit in 2012.

While I do not think it is a secret strategy coordinated among possible rivals in 2012, there is something to the idea. Right now people in elected office, be it Governors or members of Congress (and state legislatures) are faced with difficult and unpopular choices, particularly when it comes to budgets. Being out of office means not having to make tough decisions on actions and votes that can be used against a candidate for office. Certainly all of these individuals are staying involved in the political world and are still relevant so a run in 2012 would be an option.

Additionally, a few possible 2012 contenders for the Republicans have likely been removed from the running recently. South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford's presidential ambitions likely died last month. Also, Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman was tapped by the Obama administration to be their ambassador to China, so he is out of the running as well (look for him in 2016).